More Apple rumors

There have been quite a bunch of Apple rumors lately for unknown reason. I mean usually you would expect rumors when there is an upcoming Apple event (WWDC, etc), but there is really no hints of one coming up soon.

First, there is that article from WSJ about Apple cutting back on orders for iPhone 5 parts. Of course, the analysts came out from the woodwork, talking crap about weak demand. Who knows the real intention, or whether it is true or not, but one can simply go to Apple.com and see that Apple now has enough stock for the iPhone 5 to ship. I mean the phone has been on the market for almost 5 months already, and looks like Apple caught up with the demand, so obviously orders would be pared down as to not create overstock. We are talking about Tim Cook here, he knows what he is doing, better than those analysts.

Second is the revival of a cheaper iPhone rumor. Anybody that knows Apple would know that Apple is not interested in race-to-the-bottom. They skipped the netbook craze, went with the iPad and Macbook Air, and they are raking in the dough while other PC OEMs are now struggling.

Having said that, I have also been ranting about the unlocked prices of iPhones. I am not saying that Apple need to make some cheap bottom barrel iPhone, but some price cuts would be great. The cheapest iPhone right now is the 8GB iPhone 4, which sells for $450 unlocked. Compare that to the latest Nexus 4, 16GB for $349. Now, knowing what Apple has been doing in the past, and the fact that the iPhone 4 is still performing adequately under iOS6, we can see the usual shift of models when a new iPhone is announced. Ie, price drop by $100 across the board. This means the iPhone 4 will be $350. If Apple could push that down a bit more to $300, now we have the so-called “low cost” iPhone. Other than the Nexus 4, most Android phones in this price range has poorer user experience (slow hardware, old outdated OS, cheap material, etc). The iPhone 4’s industrial design alone is superior, despite the outdated internal (A4 chip). This move makes more sense, and it is what Apple has been doing in the past. To be more radical, I can see Apple updating all lineup with lightning connector.

When the analysts are talking about “low-cost” iPhone, they are talking about $200 phone unsubsidized. The Android experience at this price range is just bad, mostly phones with really really old hardware (~2008 era, first gen snapdragon). There is a new contender though, Nokia’s Lumia 620. It is not sold in the US, but it is available from import stores for less than $300. Counting how much import stores jack up the original MSRP, one can think the actual price would probably be closer to the $200 range. What’s special about the Lumia 620? Well, it runs the latest Windows Phone 8 (compared to the competing Android phones where some are still running Gingerbread in this price range), and it has dual-core Krait, the latest chipset. It may not have super duper 1080p screen, but its WVGA 3.8″ screen with Nokia’s “ClearBlack” is decent, considering the price range. So now the rumors are running wild about a plastic iPhone. Many refers back to the 3G/3GS style.

Although personally I still believe Apple would not do this (probably just do a price cut on the iPhone 4), it is more fun to speculate, no? 😀

To see how a “low-cost” iPhone would be, easiest way is to see the iPod Touch lineup, as Apple does have a $200 iPod Touch. Currently though, that iPod Touch runs the A4 chip with paltry 256MB RAM and poorer quality retina screen. However, clearly Apple can afford to sell an A5 equipped new iPod Touch, complete with a same screen as the iPhone 5, for $299. That would be a good starting point to speculate.

First, internal hardware. Although A4 is probably cheaper, and as shown with the iPhone 4, with enough RAM, it can still perform well, I would go with the A5. Apple loves the A5, putting it in the new iPod Touch and the iPad mini. Plus they can probably make those for cheap now. With the A5, comes the benefit of Siri, which imo what Apple would/should want to push at this point. The iPhone 4 doesn’t have Siri.

Screen wise, it would be the same as iPhone 4/4S retina screen. For body, although it’s tempting to bring back the 3G/3GS plastic, we know Jony Ive won’t like that. I’m guessing it would have the new design similar to the iPad mini/new iPod Touch. Apple doesn’t seem to have a problem putting LTE radio on the iPad mini using the design.

So, it’s pretty much a smaller screen iPod Touch with a phone in it. But then what about the 4S? What I can see Apple do is pretty much getting rid both the 4 and 4S (both still sporting the old 30-pin dock connector) with the new model with lightning connector. A complete makeover so all the lineup uses the lightning connector. Price? Again, Apple is about healthy profit margin. I doubt they would ever do a $200 unsubsidized iPhone unless the margin is good. Heck, they are still selling the old A4-based iPod Touch because they can’t price the newer one to $199. So this “cheaper” iPhone will be at the current iPhone 4 price point, with the iPhone 5 taking over the 4S slot and the next iPhone as the new top of the line (A7 powered, same design as the current iPhone 5 with improved materials so it won’t self-scuff inside its box).

So let’s recap. My speculation would be no more iPhone 4 nor 4S. The low end will be the iPhone using the latest iPad mini/iPod Touch design cues with 3.5″ retina screen (same screen as the 4/4S), A5 powered, 512MB RAM, same cameras as the current iPod Touch, lightning connector, starting with 8GB at $399 ($400 with a marketing spin) unsubsidized, and 16GB at $450. Next up will be the the current iPhone 5 at 16GB for $550, then the new iPhone at 16GB for $650, and so on. If Apple want to be a bit more aggressive, they can start the new iPhone at 32GB for $650.

But, I think Apple will stick to the usual pattern like I mentioned at first, iPhone 4 dropping down in price to $350, 16GB iPhone 4S taking over the $450 spot, current 16GB iPhone 5 at the $550 spot, and the new iPhone at $650 and up.

See, I can be an analyst too. 😛 The difference is I don’t get paid making ridiculous speculations.

 

More thoughts on the iPad

With many tech blogs and news sites posting endless stream of anything iPad, I want to put my own 2 cents too. 😛

I’ve been thinking about how would I use the iPad. Usually one would buy something for a purpose. Apple is obviously hoping people would try to find a purpose to justify the iPad purchase.

1. An portable internet device for the home. Ever been wanting to view some websites while you’re taking a dump, while watching TV, or while lying on your bed? I’ve been doing it with my iPod Touch/iPhone, but obviously having a device with a larger screen like the iPad would make the experience better. The larger screen is also better to view videos. A netbook is a hassle due to their form factor. The issue with the iPad is how I would get my content on it. Currently, it seems that you have to sync the iPad with iTunes, just like iPods. Well, considering the small storage space on the iPad, this is an issue. Plus I don’t want to have all my videos in iTunes. I already have a Windows Home Server for all my videos. Apple should put the ability to stream content from a networked drive to the iPad. Alas, I don’t think it would be able to do that. Plus for the price, I’ll stick with my iPhone.

2. A camera companion on the go. Let’s say you’re traveling, and want to take tons of pictures while being able to view/back them up. Currently, a cheap solution is to bring a netbook with you. Most netbooks come with an SD slot where you can dump all your pictures to. The iPad with the SD card dongle might be a more portable solution. Problem is, again, the limited storage of the iPad (if you already fill it up with your music/videos, etc). Plus, the photos app is just a basic viewing app. I’m sure there will be many photo editing tools coming to the app store (already plenty for the iPhone), but it would be more seamless if Apple put iPhoto on the iPad.

3. As a backup internet device. As much as I like Comcast, it doesn’t have 100% uptime, and when it’s down, it’s really frustrating being offline. The iPad with 3G plus its prepaid wireless data plans seem to be a nice and cheaper way to have for a backup internet, vs paying $60 a month continuously for 3G data with a USB dongle. The dilemma is, I already have the iPhone (and I’m sure it’s the case for most people that are interested in the iPad). Now if only AT&T allow tethering on the iPhone, even with an additional fee, it will still be cheaper than spending money for the iPad. Alas, AT&T sux, and there’s no hint whether they would allow iPhone tethering in the US, ever. The iPad seems to be an expensive way to solve a simple problem.

So, yeah, it’s hard trying to find a use for the iPad. Now I’m sure once it’s released, there will be apps that change the way we think about it, but at this time, the iPad seems to have a lot of potential, yet at the same time feels too limited.

I’m curious that Apple might release the iPad simply as a training wheel for their future products, for people to get used to having multi-touch on a larger screen. I would imagine future iMacs and/or Macbooks would employ a multi-touch screen. Even better, imagine an iMac/Macbook that has an A4 equipped with iPhone OS built-in for instant-on usage, in addition to the traditional OS X and intel processor. Want to listen to music/check email quickly on your Macbook, instant-on to the iPhone OS. Want to do more stuff like picture/video editing, simply boot up to OS X. Yeah, that would be awesome! Hey, I just did a rumor for upcoming Apple products! I’m guessing Apple will see how successful (and probably how small/cool they can make the A4) the iPad is, and implement it to the iMac/Macbook in a couple of years.

 

The iPad is here.

Well, after countless of rumors, fake news, fake claims, photoshopped pictures, etc etc, Apple finally unveiled the long-awaited tablet, called the iPad. No, it’s not a pot of gold spitting out unicorns, it’s just an extra large iPod Touch, to put it simply. However, because many people were imagining the Apple tablet to be a pot of gold spitting out unicorns, there are currently a lot of negative feedback, especially from the haters (who are ironically frequent visitors of sites that tend to do a lot of Apple coverage, like engadget).

When Jobs announced the iPad, he stated that the function of the device are simply to be used for browsing, email, photos, video, music, games, and eBooks. Well, the iPhone/iPod Touch already do some of those, so, being a larger iPod Touch, the iPad will be more of a better experience in those things thanks to the bigger screen. Let’s stop here for a moment. A lot of people are wanting an actual tablet PC, with a full featured desktop OS, thus the negative feedbacks. Obviously that’s not what Jobs said the iPad would be, and in a way, Apple did the right thing. Tablet PCs are not new, and they never become mainstream. Why? Because they’re mostly just laptops with a touch screen running Windows. Apple approached this in a different way, from a consumer electronic perspective, not a computer. However, that doesn’t mean the iPad is the “Jesus tablet.” We’ll go over on some of the odd choices Apple made later.

Let’s start chronologically with the keynote presentation.
First, we see Steve Jobs demoing Safari on the iPad. It shares the same gestures as Safari on the iPhone/iPod Touch. Jobs made it like it’s a new experience, but it’s not. We’re already tapping and “touching” the web, albeit on a smaller screen. Obviously it will be more pleasant doing it on a larger higher res screen, but not as groundbreaking as when multi-touch was first demoed on the first iPhone. I can see steam coming out from Jobs’ ears, seeing the empty boxes where a Flash animation/ads would’ve been when he demoed the various website. (He quickly zoomed in on a picture on National Geographic website when an empty plug-in box showed up the sides). Yeah, no Adobe Flash support, which imo is a good thing. A lot of the haters want Flash on the iPhone. Considering how lousy Adobe is, and with a lot of security issues with Flash, I’m glad Apple stays on their ground for not supporting Flash. HTML 5 FTW! Still funny though imagining what Steve was thinking when he’s demoing NYT websites with those empty plug-in boxes. LOL.

Next is email. It’s the similar email client as the one on the iPhone, with several UI tweaks when viewing the iPad on portrait or landscape mode. On landscape mode, you have the inbox and the preview pane side by side. Not bad, but then again, nothing too exciting either. No hint whether there will be a unified inbox or not. Considering it’s the same iPhone OS, my guess is not.

Oh, yeah, no multi-tasking, and no new way to switch apps. Just like the iPhone, you have to go back to the home screen to switch to another app. This can get annoying real fast on something like this. My guess is iPhone OS 4.0 is not fully ready yet. Why can’t Apple just buy Palm, and copy the way WebOS switch between apps using the ribbon.

Next, Photos. The photos app looks a lot like iPhoto (and you can guess the next version of iPhoto would share some of the looks). However, no skimming, which would be nice. Instead, you can pinch an album/event to show the pictures inside it. Nice eye candy, but skimming would be more efficient imo. In addition to viewing pictures, you can make slideshows too. Jobs showed the origami transition effect, which is very neat. Here’s the issue though, how do you get your pictures into the iPad? Wait, no camera? WTF? Yeah, no camera. This would be a no-brainer, but no, nada. You can sync your photos via iTunes from PC/Mac, but that is a really clunky way to get your pictures into the iPad. You can also import photos from an SD card/USB storage using the optional USB/SD card to dock connector adapter. I expect a fully functional iPhoto app for the iPad in the near future, as without editing capability, the current photo viewing functionality feels half-baked. Still, a built-in camera seems the more logical way. I’m guessing that will be for the next gen iPad.

Next, music. A big meh. Basically it’s like the iTunes store, except that it’s your own music. Jobs stated how nice it is to browse and play all your music collection. Wait, what? ALL your music collection? What’s the capacity of the iPad again, 16GB up to 64GB. WTF? If there’s 128GB model, then it would be fine, but 16GB? Puhlease. Apple better have some streaming functionality from iTunes on your desktop PC to the iPad. If not, this is just a big meh. The iPod app feels like a mini iTunes instead of an iPod. Small fonts galore for track and album titles. Annoying! Hopefully there’s a way to pick a larger font. Also, there better be a shuffle-by-album. If not, then the iPad fails at playing music vs a regular iPod nano/classic. Interesting enough, no coverflow? No HE-AAC support?

iTunes store, meh. Calendar, pretty nice. Heck, it seems better than iCal on OS X itself. Contacts also looks nice, better than the one on OS X. However, there’s no phone functionality on the iPad, something that I would want on this. Hopefully the contacts app can be seamless with VOIP apps. Maps is just an XL version of the Maps app on the iPhone. Still on Google maps, contrary to the rumors. A-GPS only on the 3G model, not the wifi only model. Youtube is nice, but since youtube’s content sucks major ass due to frequent copyright takedowns, I’m not too excited about this. Gimme streaming J-Dorama built-in on the iPad, then I’ll bite. 😛 Videos, well, nothing groundbreaking. The iPad’s screen resolution is only 1024×768, so no true 720p (although it does support 720p video playback), and not widescreen, so it’s not really an ideal movie viewing experience, contrary to what Jobs was trying to portray. Besides, I bet you have to sync movies with iTunes. Overall, Jobs didn’t explore too much details on these, other than trying to make it sound like the experience is new and exciting, while obviously it’s not.

Next, on to the hardware itself. As usual, the first thing Jobs said was how thin the iPad is. The big surprise here is, the fact that the iPad uses Apple’s own A4 chip. Wait, what? Apple made their own chip? Yeah, thanks to PA semi acquisition a while back. Imo this is a BIG HUGE news, that is overlooked by many people. I can see Apple using their own chip throughout their products. The next obvious one would be the iPhone and iPods, depending on how large the chip is. And then Apple TV! I can imagine the next Apple TV will be using Apple’s own chip. To put a further speculation, imagine Apple TV using the iPhone OS, complete with games. Voila, Apple’s gaming console. The possibilities are endless as Apple would be a huge CE company, capable of making a lot more products powered by this Apple chip. My next guess would be Apple making a real TV with this chip and Apple TV built-in.

Okay, enough of the chip. The iPad comes in 3 storage size: 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB. MAJOR LAME! Really? Only maxed out at 64GB? 128GB would be more reasonable, considering how Apple is trying to market this as a media device. 16GB is just sad. Heck, I have a 16GB iPod nano, and it’s just for music. I’m guessing Apple decided to scale back of the storage simply to not exceed the $999 price barrier. In short, it’s a marketing strategy, to advertise that their top-of-the-line iPad is still below $1000. Then there are the usual tech specs: Wifi n, Bluetooth, dock connector, speaker, microphone… oh wait. Microphone? This is odd. Why? Well, first, there’s no phone app, even on the models with 3G wireless connectivity. Second, no camera, no front facing camera, so no video conferencing. So, a microphone just for VOIP? My guess is that Apple will put in voice commands on the iPad, although that could contradict the supposedly more “intimate” interaction of multi-touch on the iPad. As for Bluetooth, I hope it’s not the crippled Bluetooth connection just like on the iPhone, meaning only for headsets. I want Bluetooth file transfer, or even better, Bluetooth tethering with an iPhone.

Next, Scott showing some apps, iPhone apps. Since the iPad uses the same iPhone OS, it is obviously compatible with all the current iPhone apps. In addition, the iPad can do pixel doubling so the iPhone app can be run full-screen. Big whoop. He demoed the facebook app. Heck, with the iPad, I can just go to the real facebook site. Games designed for the iPhone would run faster and smoother due to the faster processor, but obviously games designed specifically for the iPad would be better. The SDK with iPad simulator is also released. Imo another reason there’s a 60/90 days delay during this announcement and the scheduled iPad shipping date, is to allow some time for developers to make iPad-specific apps.

Next, some apps. First, Gameloft, with their FPS game. Really? FPS game is bad enough using a gamepad, now using a touch interface? Even worse, requiring some gestures (eg. 3 finger gesture just to open a door?)? Sorry, but keyboard + mouse FTW.

Second, New York Times. Yeah, even though Jobs showed that you can view the full NYT website with Safari, NYT is doing an app (probably because Jobs was not too happy with those empty Flash plug-in boxes, LOL). Some people are saying that the iPad will be the savior of the newspaper industry. NYT app shows some interactivity and even video playback. Pretty neat, and could entice some people to subscribe. However, considering I can get my news via simple RSS feeds… yeah.

Third, Brushes. Basically Paint on the iPad, with fingers. I’m sure this is a big deal for some people, but I’m no artist. The playback feature is really neat though.

4th, EA, with Need for Speed. If you think FPS is bad enough, yeah, trying to fiddle/touch the controls while playing a driving game doesn’t look fun at all. I’m sorry, but there are better game genres to show off the iPad. RTS, Adventure games, RPG, etc, not FPS or driving game. I’m guessing Apple just want to show off the graphics/processing power of the iPad.

5th, MLB. Imo sports apps like this may be one of the killer app as you can add a lot of interactivity while watching a game. Could be an awesome thing for sports fans. I couldn’t care less though. 😛

Steve returned to the stage to show iBooks (not to be confused with iBook, the pre-cursor to the Macbook), another HUGE news that slip by a lot of people. Apple is opening an eBook store, competing head to head with Amazon and the Kindle. iBooks app looks a LOT like Delicious Library. Typical Apple, the app has plenty of eye candy, especially with Steve showing how he’s flipping the book’s “page” partially back-n-forth. The fact that Apple is going to use epub format is also great news. Publishing companies are more archaic than the recording industry, clinging to DRM heavily. Hopefully Apple can change the market like they did with music. On Apple’s site, the iPad apparently has a voice over screen reader, something that the Amazon Kindle has, but got into a big fight with the publishers. Will Apple fare better? Steve surprisingly didn’t say anything about battery life, something that E-Ink-based devices will have a huge advantage. Plus, I don’t know if I can read a book for a prolonged period of time on an LCD screen. Not good for your eyes. The bigger news here is obviously Apple’s entry into the eBook market. I don’t think Amazon should be worried, as they already know something like this would happen, thus the Kindle app for the iPhone.

Next, Phil with iWork for the iPad. I don’t know. There’s a lot of questions here, not about the apps themselves as they look great but about the basic functionality you would expect. For example, printing a document/spreadsheet. There’s no USB port on the iPad. Will it be able to print to a networked printer directly? Via USB host with the USB to dock-connector dongle? If you have to export your work to a desktop first, then it’s super stupid. Then there’s Keynote. The obvious question is, is there video out? Turns out Apple has a dock-connector to VGA dongle for the iPad (which is ironic by itself considering Apple is focusing on mini display port on its computers). There’s an issue with the dongle itself, how do you connect to the AC adapter for long presentations? I’m guessing a dock connector splitter? As for iWork itself, this is the first time Apple unbundles iWork, meaning you purchase Pages, Numbers, and Keynote separately. $10 each. The touch interface seems tedious on Keynote, but maybe a pre-cursor for something larger like Microsoft’s surface (or iMac with multi-touch). The automatic word-wrap around a graphic on Pages look great. Numbers, meh. I haven’t used a word processor extensively out of school, let alone a spreadsheet or a presentation app. Another question would be, how do one export the created files out of the iPad? Syncing via iTunes? Emailing? Again, more reason for Bluetooth file transfer support.

Yes, the iPad syncs via iTunes, just like the iPhone. Sounds like iTunes will become more bloatier than ever.

Back to hardware, looks like Apple will have 2 versions of the iPad lineup. One with Wifi only, one with Wifi and 3G wireless. Looks like Apple realize that people would be furious if they have to pay more monthly bills and under contract, so the 3G data plan for the iPad will be prepaid (yay!), AND 3G iPads are unlocked out of the box (YAY!). There are 2 data plan, $15 for 250MB per month, or $30 for “unlimited.” My guess is unlimited means 5GB, since Apple is doing this with AT&T. The best part of this is of course, prepaid, meaning that you can just buy the 3G data plan when you actually need it, not having to pay for it continuously. Oh yeah, no Verizon, as Apple wants this to be an international model, thus GSM/HSDPA, not CDMA. Yeah, take that Verizon fanboys.

Now, the pricing. Jobs made a reference how people were speculating that the price will be $999, and dropped the bomb that the price of the iPad will be just $499. The crowd cheered. Wait, really? $499? Well, typical Apple, that is the lowest end model, the one that you don’t want. 16GB and wifi only. Add $100 for each bump in capacity (32GB for $599, 64GB for $699). That $499 doesn’t look that cheap anymore now does it. 😛 Having 3G connectivity and GPS adds $130 on top of those prices. So, the real price of the tablet that you will want is actually $829, for the 64GB model with wifi and 3G. Still lower than $999 (which is why we don’t see a 128GB model as Apple probably wants to stay below $999), but definitely not $499. It’s the typical Apple upselling/marketing strategy.

The wifi only models will ship in 60 days, and the wifi + 3G models will ship in 90 days. Why? In addition for regulatory issues, obviously this lag is to allow developers to have their apps ready when the iPad is shipping. As for accessories, I’m sure there are a lot of people drooling for the keyboard dock.

Lastly, a complementary making videos, a trend started with the unibody aluminum Macbooks. Oh, and a new tagling, “You just… DO!” LOL. Kinda lame. Apple is trying to portray how amazing and magical the iPad is. Yeah, that would work if we didn’t have the iPhone. Problem is, all this multi-touch stuff is not new anymore, so the newness of touching stuff is, well, getting stale. People already see Microsoft’s surface, and the various multi-touch capable PCs.

In the end, the bigger news here is not really the iPad, although that is the focus of most bloggers and tech journalists since it’s the unicorn. The big news are:
1. Apple having their own fast and low-powered chip ready for mass production.
2. Apple going into the eBook market.

So, is the iPad “magical” and “revolutionary”? Nope. Like I said, a lot of the fanciness is kinda stale due to the fact we already have multi-touch for a couple of years. The iPad seems to lack a lot of things, like a camera, front facing camera for video conferencing, a phone app (or at least an SMS app), multi-tasking, etc. It’s obvious the OS is not fully optimized for the iPad (small icons, sparse screen). A live widget like weather would be nice, like on Android phones. Should you get one? Well, I don’t think there’s a need for a tablet or iPad in the first place, outside specific industries. However, knowing Apple, I’m guessing we can see the price being pushed lower by the end of the year or so, so people would buy the iPad just because, and then contents and apps will follow suit.

Regardless whether you find a use for the iPad or not, it’s another new and shiny toy from Apple. Heck, the lure of prepaid 3G data is very tempting for a backup internet (since AT&T doesn’t seem to offer tethering for iPhone in the US, ever). Personally, I was hoping for unlocked iPhones instead of this, but obviously that is not happening. Hopefully we will see more information and specifics on features (eg. Bluetooth file transfer, Bluetooth tethering, VOIP, etc) as time goes, and maybe we will see the OS itself being optimized (or the iPad itself shipping with OS 4.0 instead). Nonetheless, I at least expect iLife, or at least iPhoto for the iPad in the near future.

As for future rumors, let’s get started before the analysts. 😛
1. Price drop of the iPad before 2010 holidays. Maybe together with the regular September/October event.
2. Next gen iPad would have a camera, or at least a front facing camera for video chat. Also iChat app will be released. It will have a larger screen while retaining the same size (less bezel).
3. iLife 2010 would share some UI looks as the iPad photo app.
4. iCal and Contacts on the next OS X would share the same look as the iPad version.
5. iPhone OS 4.0 will cost iPod Touch users yet another $10

Well, there you go, a long and winded overview of the most hyped product announcement event ever. Heck, imo the iPad release overshadow President Obama’s State of Union Address! LOL.

 

September Apple event is coming

It’s this Wednesday, 9/9/09. I’ll be following gdgt for keynote coverage and watching TWIT live for Leo Laporte’s commentaries (and occasional live spycam from the keynote). I’ll be comparing notes with my own prediction.

 

2009 iPods rumor

Okay, time to put on my analyst hat and do my own rumors/predictions for the next iPod lineup coming later this year as more and more rumors start popping up in the blogosphere. With more and more “analyst” pulling stuff out of obviousness and thin air, I think I could co better.

Let’s start with the iPod shuffle. The iPod shuffle got an early makeover earlier this year, in the form of the 3G Shuffle, which sports no buttons on the main body. It drew a lot of criticism, but it seems obvious to me that this is just Apple’s testbed on how the market will react to the voice over feature. Couple things that may happen:
1. Apple keeping the current 4GB 3G shuffle as is, maybe dropping the price to $50-$60 level.
2. Apple bringing back the 2G shuffle form factor with buttons, but with the 3G innards (Voice over, Apple lossless support, Apple earbud+remote support, etc). Apple is still selling the 2G shuffle (1GB for $50), so why not making the lineup matching again with the same form factor. I can see Apple spinning the criticism of the 3G Shuffle by saying “The people are demanding buttons on the Shuffle, and we’re going to give it to them!” (Cue in the claps and cheers from the audience). I still think Apple might drop the price to the $50-$60 level too. 2GB 2G Shuffle for $40-$50, 4GB “3.5G” Shuffle at $50-$60.
3. Clean up the 3G Shuffle even more, getting rid of the shuffle slider resulting in just a completely smooth piece of aluminum with a headphone jack (no buttons nor sliders). Put an accelerometer in it, and voila, Shuffle with “shake to shuffle” feature. LOL.
Whatever happens, I just want Apple to put gapless playback into the Shuffle.

Next, the iPod nano. The 4G nano is a clear sign that Apple is running out of ideas for the lineup (Shake to shuffle? Really?). In fact, I still prefer the 3G nano’s Now Playing screen as it shows the song’s rating while the 4G nano does not. The only thing that makes the 4G nano attractive is its selection of colors. So, here are my predictions:
1. Keeping the same 4G nano but adding voice over feature, and cutting the price so Apple can push the pricing of the iPod Touch without overlapping. So maybe 8GB for $99, 16GB for $149, in line with the current refurbished pricing.
2. Currently, there are rumors about the new nano sporting a camera. Imo this is just too farfetched, and even sillier than adding “shake to shuffle.” Unless, of course Apple has something up their sleeve. I’m guessing of a touch screen nano. It will have a touch screen covering the front face completely like the iPod Touch. Instead of having a full iPhone/Touch OS, it will just have a stripped down ver of the OS, with only the iPod app plus the basic apps (Contacts, Calendar, Photo. No Mail/Safari/app store, etc). Now, with this setting, adding a camera might work, as it already has the OS to support it. Basically an iPod Touch nano, focusing more on the iPod features. Obviously it will have voice over too. The camera would probably just the basic 2MP one from the 1st gen iPhone (Apple probably already have a boatload of these), not the 3.2MP one from the 3GS. This might work, and will also give Apple a leverage to keep a bit of price premium. 16GB for $179, 8GB for $129. I can see the new slogan already, “Touch, on the smallest iPod ever.”
Regardless of what happen, it’s a given that there is going to be a price cut and voice over. Either way, I can see the line of standalone DAPs on its last leg, with the trend going to a mobile-OS based PMPs (in Apple’s case, the iPod Touch).

iPod Classic, the original iPod lineup that, unfortunately, is getting a step-child treatment. Last year, it didn’t even get any UI upgrades, other than the support of the earbud with remote+mic and Genius. It also an oddball in Apple’s usually clean lineup, having an overlapping price with the iPod Touch. My guess for the Classic:
1. Keeping the same 120GB, adding voice over. Really, Apple cannot do much on the classic. I don’t see Toshiba releasing higher capacity 5mm height hard-drives than the current 120GB. Plus, Apple’s obsession with thinness made them discontinued the thicker Classics last year, so I doubt Apple would bring them back. Price cut might happen too, dropping the price to, let’s say, $199 to $229. Really, not many competitors here other than the Zune 120, so Apple might as well keep the same $249 price point.
2. Discontinue it altogether. Apple might just decide it’s time to truly focus on the iPod Touch, and the oddball Classic pricing was in the way. This might irk some people desiring high capacity players, but I don’t think the majority of the consumers would be bothered. I doubt the sales of the Classic is that great, as the big sellers are the Touch and nano.
3. Make a flash based Classic. Really, this is my wish. As much as I love the 3G nano, its controls are just too small. I love my 5G iPod, but the hard-drive prevented me from using it on the go. If Apple went to the route of the Touch nano, maybe we can see a Touch Classic. It will have a full touch screen like the iPod Touch, but with the stripped down OS like the Touch nano, focusing on the iPod capabilities (no safari, no app store, etc). Price and capacity, maybe 16GB at $199, and 32GB at $299. Imo this is highly unlikely though, as it is really overlapping with the iPod Touch, and Apple usually prefer a clean lineup.
Well, it’s sad to see high capacity hard-drive based players are going away. It wasn’t that long ago we have hard-drive based Creative Jukebox, and the original iPod. Flash memory are just more reliable, and their pricing continues to go down.

Lastly, the iPod Touch. This is the flagship iPod product. Current rumors are that the next Touch will sport a camera, and I think it’s true. I can see the next Touch sharing the same hardware with the iPhone 3GS, minus the phone, GPS, and compass. It will have the same camera, the same video recording capability, and a built-in mic. Voice over and voice command are a given. The only question is pricing.
1. 1 way is Apple keeping the premium price and follow the same trend as the iPhone. 16GB for $299, 32GB for $399, and keeping the 8GB 2G Touch at $199. Apple does want people to get the iPhone, thus the 2G Touch pricing was not cheaper than the iPhone 3G. Apple might decide to keep the Touch prices higher than the iPhone 3GS to encourage people buying the iPhone instead.
2. Or Apple can be aggressive, simply price the 16GB new Touch at $199, and 32GB at $299. This will really make the competitors scrambling (especially looking at Sony’s pricing of their X series).
3. A more conservative pricing, matching the ZuneHD. The ZuneHD is rumored to start at 16GB at $249, so maybe Apple would simply follow that. 16GB for $249, 32GB for $349. Still a good deal if it has the auto focus camera and a built-in mic. Might not be so hot otherwise though, as the ZuneHD can output 720p.
To be honest, I just want Apple to put shuffle-by-album feature on the iPod Touch. this is a basic feature on the regular iPods. Why is it not in the supposedly “best iPod ever”?

So, there’s my analysis prediction for the next iPod lineup, way before all the so-called analysts making their obvious predictions. Take that. LOL. Alas, I’m not getting paid while those so-called analysts are getting paid for writing the obvious.

One can see, as I already stated before, that the trend is going towards mobile OS platform. Standalone DAPs are going nowhere, and a smarter device is the obvious next step. Microsoft is using Windows mobile/CE for the ZuneHD. Apple already have the mobile OS X for the Touch. Sony is going Android for their next Walkman. Standalone DAPs will be just low end cheapo DAPs.

 

Apple Event: New laptops

Okay, recap on the event that are discussed in too many blogs out there. 😀
1. Macbook pro 15″ (17″ is only a refresh, still using the old nVidia 8600)
-Glass screen and trackpad
-nVidia chipset
-Dual GPU (1 integrated and 1 discreet)
-Firewire 800, no 400
-DisplayPort (instead of DVI)
-New screen is glossy only
-At the selling prices, IMO 4GB should be standard nowadays

2. Old Macbook
-Starting at $999
-White only
-Superdrive standard, no more combo drive

3. New Macbook
-Glass screen and trackpad
-All aluminum
-nVidia chipset
-nVidia graphics, no more intel
-DisplayPort
-No more firewire 😦 Boo! I guess since the new Macbook resembles really close to the new Macbook pro, Apple had to take something out

4. Macbook Air
-nVidia graphis, no intel, yay!
-Upgraded storage, 128GB SSD! Finally SSD that is larger than the standard hard-drive, but still a very expensive upgrade
-DisplayPort

4. 24″ Cinema display
-Glossy, glass
-Built-in iSight
-$899? Seems pricey to me.
-DisplayPort only
-Magsafe connector
-USB ports only, no Firewire?
-The cables are bundled together, seems perfect for connecting Macbook and Macbook pro, but how about the Air, where the magsafe connector is on the other side? Hopefully the cables can be split long enough

Almost all the rumors and spy pics are correct, other than blu-ray support. There are obvious trends here. Aluminum, DisplayPort, and the move away from Firewire 😦 The new Macbook has a really good value, delivering Macbook pro features (aluminum, LED display, nVidia graphics) at lower prices, as long as you don’t need firewire. I bet a lot of people will buy this instead of the more expensive MBP. However, note that Snow Leopard and iLife09 is coming soon, so for those that can wait, as usual, wait. 😀

Based on this event, we can already predict what will be on Macworld 09:
-Mac mini. The Mac mini is old. Presumably Apple would update it to using nVidia graphics and DisplayPort. I hope Apple can push the mini’s prices down, maybe utilizing dual core atom processors or the leftovers from old Macbooks. At least get rid of the combo drive and drop the price to be on the magic $499.
-iMac. Again, obvious update to include DisplayPort. Maybe the switch to nVidia instead of ATI? Hopefully quad-core.
-Mac pro. Another obvious upgrade to use video cards that have DisplayPort out to couple them with the new Cinema Display.
-iLife 09 & iWorks 09, couldn’t be more obvious. 🙂

My wish:
I want an Apple netbook, something that has smaller footprint than the Macbook/Air.

Edit: Streaming video of the event is up at Apple’s site, but cut short, not including the Q&A sessions.

 

Apple new notebook rumors

Well, as expected, Apple announced an event, and BAM, the rumors, spy pics and videos are all over the net. I’ll chime in too. 🙂

-Macbook: Make it lighter. The Macbook is heavy! If Sony and Dell can make a 13.3″ laptop that weigh only less than 4 pounds, why can’t Apple? Maybe the move to aluminum will help. Spec wise, the Macbook is good, except for the integrated intel graphic. Although I do wish for a Macbook with a dedicated GPU, don’t think it will happen. Oh, and please get rid of the combo drive model. Almost any other laptops out there come with DVD burner. Apple, this is 2008, not 2000.
-Macbook Air: Apple missed on this one. With the advent of cheap netbooks, an expensive Macbook Air is less and less attractive. The problem with the Air is that it’s not smaller. Sure it’s super thin, but the footprint is still around the same as 13.3″ laptops. On top of that, it doesn’t have much IOs. The least Apple could do is drop the price and add more storage. Or maybe just discontinue it and make a Macnetbook.
-Macbook Pro: It’s hard to think of a redesign MBP. Even Jobs thinks it’s almost perfect. Many people wants WWAN option. Maybe the glass trackpad to justify the premium price (if the Macbook becomes aluminum too). Blu-ray drive, maybe, but I don’t think it will happen considering Apple’s focus on doanloadable

There are not much info in the rumors compared to the 4G nano. Spec wise, I don’t see any newer chips from intel, considering intel is moving to the i7. Maybe quad core MBP. Maybe this will be just a design change without spec upgrade, waiting for i7. I do want a smaller Apple laptop. 11″ or so would be nice. Let’s face it Apple, the Macbook Air is not what the consumer want. With a downturn economy, cheap netbooks are more and more attractive. Apple doesn’t have to race to the bottom, but they have to rethink their pricing strategy.

 

Apple rumors?

Is it just me, or is Apple being more and more lenient, or maybe unable to control, the leaks and rumors for their new products? I remember in the past, nobody ever know what’s going on, let alone spy pics. Most of the rumors were false. Now, pretty much the rumors of the 4G nano, including iTunes 8 features, the spy pics, all turned up to be correct. In the past, there was the slim aluminum keyboard picture leak, then the 3G nano + new UI leak, and all were correct. Maybe Jobs health is affecting this? Hmmm.

 

New iPods rumor?

With the day of the iPhone 3G coming closer, more and more rumors are starting for iPods on the net. With Apple putting the iPhone 3G price at $199, it’s pretty confusing to consumers in regards to pricing of the iPod lineup. Anything at the $199 price will become a hard sell, since the comparison is the iPhone 3G 8GB.

My take:
-Shuffle: no change, maybe price drop (1GB gone, 2GB at current 1GB price).
-iPod nano: Apple pretty much nailed it with the 3G nano. There isn’t much they could do more. Maybe capacity bump across the board and/or price drop. You could see some hints at the prices of the refurbished nanos. Maybe 8GB or 16GB @ $149. It would be hard for Apple to promote the nano at $199, considering the iPhone 3G price.
-iPod classic: There is no announcements/rumors about larger capacity 1.8″ hard-drives. The iPod classic is already at 160GB. Price drop will overlap with the nano/iPhone/Touch too closely. Maybe 100GB/120GB @ $249, and 160GB @299, but unlikely.
-iPod Touch: In the past, at the same price with the iPhone, you loose the phone, but gain more capacity at the same price point. With the iPhone 3G, consumers might look at the Touch as the worst deal. Apple could ignore the Touch altogether, pushing people to buy the iPhone. If not, there must be some price cuts/capacity bump. I’m guessing $100 price drop across the board. Same price with the iPhone 3G and all the new apps without 2 year commitment to AT&T.

My wish:
-iPod nano: bring back the aluminum enclosure like 2G nano. I can’t believe Apple brought back the highly scratchable chrome back for the 3G. 16GB is a must, considering all the competitors (Sony, Creative, etc) have 16GB already. Maybe also put the Nike transmitter built-in so we don’t have to deal with dock-blocking attachment anymore.
-iPod classic: I want a flash based iPod classic. The nano is great, but the click wheel is just too small. The iPod classic has the perfect size on my hand. Make it full aluminum (ala mini/2G nano) and flash based (32GB+).
-iPod Touch: Make it cheap and use the backing of the first gen iPhone. And where’s the shuffle by album?

To be honest, there isn’t much more innovation you can do on a digital audio player anymore. Apple nailed almost everything, including gapless playback on MP3 & AAC, something that the competitors cannot even figure out yet. Microsoft tried wifi sharing, but it’s going nowhere. Creative will come up with their X-Fi DAP, but too late and who cares. With memory card prices getting cheaper and cheaper, more and more people are using cellphones as their basic DAPs. Everybody realize this (Apple with Touch/iPhone, Sony Ericsson with Walkman phones, Nokia with XpressMusic and N-series phones). It’s cheaper for people to buy a 2GB microSD card than an iPod shuffle. The MP3 player as we know it is going to the way of the PDA, replaced by cellphones, and Apple is definitely aware of this. I can see Apple will focus more and more on the iPhone/Touch, especially with the new firmware and apps. The iPod as we know it might be gone, or maybe Apple will just keep the nano as a low end DAP, and push the Touch as the main iPod.